A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
